Game theory: Explaining the Mid East Conflicts

Players Israel, Hezbollah, the Arab World and the rest of the World Motivation Israel · To maintain peace, security and well being of its land and population · To respond to peace threatening elements in order to ensure lasting peace · To try and destroy the terrorist infrastructure with minimum confrontation and minimum risk of public outrage possible Hezbollah · Destruction of Israel (as claimed by Hezbollah) · Disrupt peace in Israel to gain attention to cause · Get new recruits o Involves maintaining the heroic status of current recruits o Providing work opportunities to current to make the job interesting · Ensure well being of current recruits Analysis Let’s start from the beginning. Unstable equilibrium is when both Israel and Hezbollah are sitting quietly. Israel is content to sit quiet – it is less costly, benefits economy, gives an illusion of peace and helps get the world’s sympathy vote by becoming a victim rather than an offender. Hezbollah is too small to reasonably expect to work towards its goal. It would thus be very uncomfortable if it sat quietly. It would not have work for new recruits, no way of inspiring heroism in the recruitment drives it would be conducting and might lose the support of the community it thrives and recruits in. If it loses support or no one talks about its cause, its existence comes under question. So it works to disrupt peace in Israel. This establishes that Israel and Hezbollah have broadly conflicting purposes, implying that status quo for one is never acceptable to the other. Current Conflict Let’s see how these things apply to the current conflict. There is calm, and that is not good for Hezbollah. They go ahead and take the most optimal action – disrupt peace and calm in Israel by killing three and capturing 2 Israeli soldiers. Israel has 4 distinct choices to consider: 1. Do nothing 2. Exchange their captured soldiers and release a few captured Hezbollah/Arab soldiers, do not take any other action. 3. Mild armed response – raids a few Palestinian strongholds, kill a few Palestinians and demand release of its own soldiers, continue the offensive for a few days. 4. Heavy armed response – raid a Palestinian and Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, flatten a few buildings and continue till soldiers are released or found dead, make sure to destroy as many militant hideouts as possible. Choices 1 and 2 are not an option, as they encourage Hezbollah to try it again. Let’s look at choices 3 and 4. Mild response from Israel would mean almost no one would bother – Israel keeps doing it, so it is nothing new. Outcomes can be either 1. Hezbollah release the Israeli soldiers Or 2. Hezbollah kills Israeli soldiers, sits tight for a few months and does it again. Hezbollah is not going to release the captives ever as that would signify defeat in the eyes their people. Their only option is to kill the soldiers, sit tight and wait for a few months before doing it again. This helps them show heroism in their support base. Consequence of this step is still the death of soldiers and more nuisances from Hezbollah in future. Compared to this, choice 4, heavy armed response, offers distinct advantages and reasons to make it an optimal choice for Israel. Heavy response can be a) Concentrated b) Diversified to other areas Concentrated heavy response would mean attacking pockets of Palestinian stronghold and Hezbollah camps and destroying as much Hezbollah infrastructure as possible. No body else is affected. Unfortunately, this is also the optimal response for Hezbollah. It helps them build their base by highlighting Israeli atrocities. This has been the usual Israeli response. Offensive goes on for a few days and than uneasy peace prevails. It wastes Israel’s time and money and no lasting peace is achieved. It builds hatred against Israel and aids the recruitment efforts of all anti Israeli organizations. Israel destroys some terrorist infrastructure and gets peace for some time in return. This is the optimal response Hezbollah expects from Israel and is most beneficial to Hezbollah. This is probably the optimal response both parties need to have to coexist acrimoniously. If diversified heavy response is pursued, Israel attacks Hezbollah directly in their home base. Moreover, Israel knows Hezbollah is popular only in southern half of the country not in northern. By attacking northern targets, Israel can increase the unpopularity of the Hezbollah in north. This might lead to pressure on Hezbollah not to create nuisance from Lebanon. By asking for their return in public, Israel ensures sympathy vote for itself. By diversifying, it is also able to destroy more base camps and instill fear in people who become primary recruits of Hezbollah. Such a response is costly and there is always a fear of escalation of the conflict. It almost ensures that captured soldiers would not be returned, thus justifying such a response in the first place. Response of Hezbollah to this would be to attack civilian targets in Israel and war mongering, thus pressuring Israel to raise the stakes even more. If this is the case, why would Israel take this action? Remember, whatever Israel does is potentially good for Hezbollah, unless something helps Israel erode Hezbollah’s support in their home base. This response does precisely that. It changes the game. People in rest of the world had stopped bothering with what was going on Israel – news was all about Iraq and Iran. Hezbollah successfully diverts attention to Lebanon and Palestine by the kidnap and resulting Israeli response. Israel grabs the opportunity to start killing in Lebanon, unrelated to the conflict but can easily destabilize Hezbollah if enough Lebanese, unrelated to the conflict, suffer. Moreover, it helps Israel raid south Lebanon, a Hezbollah stronghold. Civilian population would anyways have suffered – if not now, a few months down the line – implies go for decisive action and try to think ahead of the enemy. This action has gotten Hezbollah thinking and the world to take notice again – good for Israel, as it is the victim right now and apparently justified. Good still for Hezbollah – world has been reminded of them. This also means that conflict should not escalate more, as everyone’s purpose is being served and goals are being met.